Thoughts on Good Decisions
[The 37% Rule]
CONTEXT
When it comes to major life decisions - whether it's buying a house, choosing between job offers, or committing to a partner - it’s easy to get stuck in indecision, constantly wondering, what if something better comes along?
So we hesitate.
We wait.
And in the end, we often look back and regret not pulling the trigger sooner, realising that the choice we passed up was probably the best one after all.
(Trust me, I’ve been there.)
Then I stumbled upon the 37% Rule, and it completely changed my perspective. 🙏
I first encountered it in Algorithms to Live By, a book by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths who dive into how computer science principles can solve everyday problems - like how many houses to view before buying, how many job candidates to interview before making an offer, or even how many dates to go on before settling down.
Yes, really. 😂
Here’s the 3-step process they recommend:
METHOD
Step 1.
First, set a clear deadline for yourself - decide how much time you're willing to invest in making this decision.
For instance, you might say, "I need to hire someone within the next 6 months."
Step 2.
Next, explore the first 37% of your options.
Let’s say you have 15 strong job applicants.
Interview the first 6.
This step is all about getting a feel for the field - see who’s out there and use it as a benchmark to judge who stands out as the “best” so far.
Step 3.
Keep going, but when you find someone who’s clearly better than your top options from the first 37%, be ready to make a move.
For example, if the 8th candidate you interview blows the first 6 out of the water, make the offer.
No need to waste time interviewing the rest.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Progress »»» Perfection
Time is precious.
If you interview every candidate before making an offer to #8, there’s a good chance that person will have already accepted another job by the time you make your move.
This is where “optimal stopping” comes in: it’s the point when the cost of continuing your search (like losing #8) outweighs the potential benefit of finding someone even better.
The key here is maximising probabilities.
Sure, it’s possible that the first candidate was the best. It’s also possible that #10 could have been a better fit than #8. But if your goal is to make the best choice while minimising the time you spend making it, the sweet spot usually comes after exploring the first 37% of options.
If you found this interesting, definitely check out the full book. It’s a game-changer.
Catch you next week!
Max
P.S. Welcome to the 77 people who joined the community last week! Learn more about Food for Thought here 🎉